poll

• Box Turtle Bulletin: The American Psychological Association, meeting at their annual conference in Toronto, adopted a resolution today calling on mental health professionals to stop telling clients that they can change their sexual orientation through therapy or other treatments. And in a direct challenge to NARTH and Exodus International, the resolution further calls on patients, guardians, families and other clients to avoid conversion therapy programs which portray homosexuality as a mental illness or developmental disorder.
• Steve Benen says it's impossible to deal with the Right because, no matter what you say or how your phrase it, "it's hard to anticipate just how paranoid some people will choose to be" and how they will distort it.
• Kevin Drum says "every movement has its loons" but while Democrats never validate the ones on the left, Republicans make their right-wing ones the centerpiece of their movement.
• There is just something funny about the Right trying to stoke anger and shut down Democratic town hall events while the RNC is refusing to take calls from "a bunch of angry liberals" about it.
• And there is something even funnier about Frank Luntz complaining that Democrats would use "poll driven language" to "mislead the American people" on health care reform.
• Salon's handy-dandy guide to refuting the Birthers.

• Our latest Right Wing Watch In Focus is now available: "To Hell with Health Care Reform: Religious Right Leaders Attack Obama, Spout GOP Dogma about 'Socialism' While Fanning Flames on Abortion."
• D.C. lobbying firm Bonner and Associates has been busted sending forged letters opposing climate change legislation to members of Congress and blames it on a "temp" who has been fired, though they seem to have a history of pulling these sorts of astroturf stunts.
• Dick Armey explains why he doesn't believe in global warming: "[T]he lord God almighty made the heavens and the Earth, and he made them to his satisfaction and it is quite pretentious of we little weaklings here on earth to think that, that we are going to destroy God’s creation."
• Matthew Yglesias: Just When You Thought the “Beer Summit” Story Couldn’t Get Any More Ridiculous…
• Jim Burroway takes an in-depth look at NARTH's new "peer reviewed" study proving that sexual orientation can be changed.
• Finally, Steve Benen takes a look at the fascinating new Daily Kos poll showing who does and who does not believe that President Obama was born in the United States.

The Washington Post released a poll today that it says shows that "as Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin prepares for the next stage of her political career, a majority of Americans hold an unfavorable view of her, and there is broad public doubt about her leadership skills and understanding of complex issues."

Alex Koppelman disputes that assessment but what I find most interesting is the poll result that shows that Mike Huckabee leading the way among potential 2012 GOP nominees:

27. (ASKED OF REPUBLICANS AND GOP-LEANING INDEPENDENTS) If the 2012 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were (READ LIST) for whom would you vote?

Mike Huckabee 26%
Mitt Romney 21%
Sarah Palin 19%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Jeb Bush 3%
Haley Barbour 1%
Bobby Jindal (vol.) 2%
Charlie Crist (vol.) *
Other/None of these/Would not vote/No opinion 14%

Obviously, polls conducted more than three years before the next presidential election are not particularly reliable or meaningful, but that hasn't stopped Huck's Army from proclaiming that it "shows strong support for Gov. Huckabee if he decides to build on his second place finish in the 2008 Republican Primary."

But taking this poll for what it is worth, allow me to semi-misleadingly exploit it in order to declare "LEADING GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE TO ATTEND BIRTHER CONFERENCE!" to just try and hammer home the fact that Huckabee is headlining the How To Take Back America Conference which is being hosted by at least three bona fide Birthers: Janet Porter, Joseph Farah, and Rick Scarborough.

As I have said before:

Just about every insane right-wing conspiracy theory currently in circulation has been embraced by one or more of the organizers of this event, all of whom have actively worked to spread the fear that Obama and the Democrats are out to destroy Christianity and turn America into a socialist hellhole.

And Mike Huckabee, instead of trying to distance himself from the lunacy of his former supporters, openly and willingly continues to associate with them.

And now this man is currently leading the field of future GOP presidential nominees.

If that doesn't terrify you, I don't know what will.

With only five days until the deadline for Protect Marriage Washington to turn in the 120,577 signatures needed to get Referendum 71 on the November ballot, it looks like they have a long way to go. If the organization obtains enough signatures, however, Referendum 71 would give voters the option of repealing Washington's "everything but marriage" law, which gives domestic partners full marriage benefits without the title of "marriage."

In a blog post last week, however, Gary Randall, the lead organizer of Protect Marriage Washington, noted that they would need roughly 150,000 signatures by the deadline, due to the fact that with any petition drive a substantial amount of signatures will be ineligible:

Organizers have until July 25 to turn 120,577 valid signatures in to the Secretary of State's office. Lead organizer Gary Randall reports that more than 75,000 signatures have been received so far. "We think this is good news. However, it points out exactly how much work is left to do in just two weeks," Randall announced on his "Faith & Freedom PAC" blog last week. "We need at least 150,000 signatures to ensure that we have the 120,577 necessary. There are always some signatures that are disqualified for various reasons."

With so many signatures left to obtain, it is surprising that Randall didn't pay closer attention to two polls that he commissioned. They actually show that voter support for gay marriage is on the rise in Washington:

The survey asks, “In your opinion, should homosexuals be allowed to legally marry?” Here is how the 405 Washington voters answered:

Yes — 43%
No — 50%
Didn’t know or no answer — 7%

Conducted by Elway Research, the poll shows an unmistakable trend of growing support for marriage equality. Another poll paid for by Faith and Freedom and conducted by Elway Research in 2005 found that only 35 percent of voters supported allowing gays and lesbians to marry (.pdf).

More important, however, is the fact that Protect Marriage Washington isn't even fighting a marriage equality law―the law simply extended marriage benefits to those in domestic partnerships. That hasn't stopped the group from falsely claiming that the law will give Washington same-sex couples the right to marry. Here's an ad, now posted on their website, that ran in opposition to the law last year:

• Jim DeMint continues his crusade to establish himself as the most ridiculous member of the Senate by proclaiming that the coup that removed Honduran President Manuel Zelaya’s from office was no different "than was Gerald Ford’s ascendence to the Oval Office or our newest colleague Al Franken’s election to the Senate" and that the United States is currently "about where Germany was before World War II where they became a social democracy."
• The details of Sen. John Ensign's affair and attempted cover-up are looking worse by the day.
• Good As You catches the Family Research Council trying to spin a new poll so that it seemed that same-sex marriage was destroying New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch's approval rating.
• Kathleen Reeves of RH Reality Check explains that while Jill Stanek wants to end abortion, she's not at all interested in finding ways to reduce unplanned pregnancies so as to eliminate the need for abortion.
• Crooks and Liars reports that Fox and Friends got itself all worked up over something it read off the Christian Newswire and then predictably set out to turn it into a "controversy" by reporting only the religious right's spin of the event.
• Finally, a group of 25 leading Latino organizations sent a letter to Sen. Jeff Sessions slamming his questionable attacks on LatinoJustice PRLDEF and Sonia Sotomayor while Ian Millhiser explains how several anti-gay groups are attacking Judge Sotomayor for her decision in a case brought by an anti-gay pastor — even though Sotomayor ruled in the pastor’s favor.

One thing I will say about Janet Porter is that she is always moving forward with her efforts to shape America to suit her fevered right-wing dreams and is constantly positive that the next thing is the one that is going to turn it all around.

In her most recent column, Porter declares that the upcoming How To Take Back America Conference is going to be a key event in the Right's resurgence as it wrests control away from President Obama and saves America from its descent into socialist paganism:

But this isn't funny any more.

If you're not laughing, sign up today for the How to Take Back America Conference in St. Louis Sept. 25 and 26. I'm co-chairing the event along with Phyllis Schlafly of Eagle Forum and a host committee that includes: Rick Scarborough of Vision America, Michael Farris of the Home School Legal Defense Association, Mat Staver, of Liberty Counsel and Don Feder, from the World Congress of Families. Speakers include Gov. Mike Huckabee, Delta Force Leader Gen. Jerry Boykin and California Rep. Tom McClintock.

For those of you who want to take our country back while there's still something left of it, every speech, workshops and panel will all have something in common: They will all answer the most often asked question about taking America back: "How?"

See you in St. Louis.

Frankly, I'd be a little more frightened by this if it wasn't pretty much the same thing Porter was declaring back in 2007 ahead of the Values Voter Debate she also organized:

You know that I'm one for taking action, so I'll cut straight to the chase. There's a big event coming up and you need to be a part of how it's going to re-shape America.

What: The GOP Values Voters Presidential Debate

When: Sept. 17, 2007

...

We must know just how close we are to winning everything we've been working for in the last three decades: one more seat on the Supreme Court can restore the right to protect children again to the people of each state. We have a chance to protect the institution of marriage from the courts that are attacking it. We have the right to protect our freedom of speech, freedom of religion and right to own property.

If you are sick of reacting and tired of retreat, this is your time. This is our time. Our moment in history to change the future. Please pray for the event and become involved in it: submit your questions for the candidates to f2ainfo@f2a.org. We need to hear the questions that are burning in your heart. Quit shaking your fist at the television and write the questions that you want answered!

Following the debate, Porter predicted that "the Values Voter Straw Poll will unify the pro-family movement and determine the nominee" and that that nominee would be Mike Huckabee, whose presidency would be the culmination of all of the Right's political efforts:

My eye is on the prize – the Supreme Court – and Huckabee is the only guy in the race that we know will give it to us. Everything is on the line, whether we win it all or lose it all. Yet, during this time of moral crisis, many of our leaders are silent. Others just throw rocks. Dante put it this way:

"The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in a time of moral crisis, remain neutral."

I'm going to keep sending donations until I reach the $2,300 maximum so I will have a clear conscience when my children and grandchildren ask me the question I know will come. That question? "Where were you when they were killing babies?" I want to answer: "I did everything I could to stop it."

If you will vote now with your pocketbook to help elect the only guy we know for certain will give us the judges we need on the bench, we can have a much better answer. When our children and grandchildren ask us: "Where were you when they were killing babies?" we can reply: WE WERE THE ONES WHO STOPPED IT.

One more election, one more judge. Everything we've worked for is within our reach. Don't let our last chance pass us by. Multiply next December's pro-life donations by more than a hundredfold: Go to www.mikehuckabee.com now and vote for life.

Remind me how that worked out again?

So here we are two years later and Porter is organizing another right-wing confab featuring Mike Huckabee and a gaggle of fringe leaders who will take back America and I find myself decidedly unimpressed because ... well, it all sounds just so familiar: 

I said it before, I'll say it again: Values Voters are going to determine the outcome of this election. Don't believe me? Wait and see. One more prediction: With this election, we're going to take back the Supreme Court of the United States, stop the killing of unborn children, protect the institution of marriage and regain our freedoms of speech and religion. We're going to take back America. You heard it here first.

Last week, Gallup released a poll showing that, not surprisingly, people who know someone how is gay are more inclined to support marriage equality:

While 57% of Americans oppose legalizing gay marriage, Americans who personally know someone who is gay or lesbian are almost evenly divided on the matter, with 49% in favor and 47% opposed. Among those who do not personally know anyone who is gay, 72% oppose legalized gay marriage while just 27% favor it.

Andrew Sullivan saw the poll as evidence that gays "need to accelerate the process of coming out," but  Gary Cass of the Christian Anti-Defamation Commission sees it differently ... primarily as evidence that Christians need to disassociate themselves from gays and everyone else who doesn't share their right-wing values:

The polling discovered that one of the most important factors that control a person’s opinion about homosexual marriage was that of association, it even trumps a person’s political ideology ... In fact, former Vice President, Dick Cheney, is a perfect example. Cheney is reliably conservative on virtually every issue except homosexual marriage. This is likely as a result of the fact that he is the father of an open, practicing lesbian.

...

The natural human tendency is to be deceived in situations when we associate with openly sinful people. Human sentimentality kicks in and biblical thinking is set aside. We rationalize and justify behaviors in people we know more than in people we don’t.

This applies to more than homosexuality; it touches other sins as well. Of course, because there is a powerful deceptive dynamic you will be tempted to say, “Having close relationships with the ungodly will not affect me.” Don’t be deceived!

...

You are who you associate with ... We must find our significant associations with our Lord and His wise people. Associate daily with Christ by spending time in His Word and in prayer. Listen to His voice and cultivate a conscience that is informed by God’s Word.

Find like-minded servants of Christ with which to fellowship and to whom you can be accountable on a regular basis. Sit under the sound biblical teaching of a biblically qualified pastor. These are the ways that God will keep you from the corrupting associations of this world.

Be very careful out there in the world. Remember, “Don’t be deceived; Bad company corrupts good morals.”

The Washington Times seems to have serious problems doing simple math.  Just last month, they published a editorial claiming that President Obama was the “second-least-popular president in 40 years” when, in fact, the very poll it cited showed that Obama’s standing was “well above the historical norm for all approval ratings.”

And now we get this equally inane claim from the Times today:

With Judge Sonia Sotomayor already facing questions over her 60 percent reversal rate, the Supreme Court could dump another problem into her lap next month if, as many legal analysts predict, the court overturns one of her rulings upholding a race-based employment decision.

Three of the five majority opinions written by Judge Sotomayor for the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals and reviewed by the Supreme Court were reversed, providing a potent line of attack raised by opponents Tuesday after President Obama announced he will nominate the 54-year-old Hispanic woman to the high court.

"Her high reversal rate alone should be enough for us to pause and take a good look at her record. Frankly, it is the Senates duty to do so," said Wendy Wright, president of Concerned Women for America.

So the Supreme Court granted review in a total of five cases where she authored the majority opinion and reversed the decision in three of them, giving her a 60 percent reversal rate … which is actually quite good considering that, in recent years, the Supreme Court has reversed more than 70% of all the cases it has heard.

But more importantly, as the article points out, Sotomayor wrote 380 majority decisions in her 11 years on the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals, the vast majority of which didn’t get reversed by the Supreme Court. In fact, only five even ended up there and thus her three reversals out of 380 decisions gives her a reversal rate of exactly 0.00789473684.

The only “problem” for Sotomayor here is the Times’ pathetic lack of math skills.  

• David Weigel provides a concise history of the various efforts to remake the Republican Party.
• Steve Benen offers some related advice to the party: stop being crazy. Unfortunately, as Greg Sargent reports, they seem to have no such plans.
• Kevin Drum notes that "the GOP does seem to check most of the boxes in the International Cultic Studies Association's 'Characteristics Associated with Cultic Groups'" - with one notable exception.
• I don't know if I completely agree with Nate Silver's assessment of Mike Huckabee's appeal, but he does make a good point about the overlap of the economic and social conservatives.
• Andrew Sullivan points out a rather telling quote from Dick Cheney regarding his oath of office.
• Finally, Good as You rightly continues to hound CornerStone Policy Research over it absurd claim that it polled literally every household in New Hampshire over a two day period for its poll showing state residents don't support marriage equality.