Posts on Elections

We just wrote about this yesterday, but it looks like Jerry Falwell Jr.'s Liberty University voter drive is off to a fast start: 

In its first few days of encouraging students to register to vote locally, Liberty University has collected more than 2,500 voter registration forms.

“It’s going better than expected, and we’re going to continue to push it hard,” Chancellor Jerry Falwell Jr. said Wednesday.

...

“I just told them how important it was to register here,” Falwell said Wednesday. “I heard on the radio yesterday that … Virginia is still right on the fence and could go either way. They could go down in history as the college that elected a president.”

Liberty University sure does have some lofty goal, doesn't it?  Just last year, not long before he passed away, Jerry Falwell was musing that his ultimate goal was to one day have a Liberty grad sitting on the Supreme Court.

The conventional wisdom says that Virginia is a key battleground state in the upcoming election and Jerry Falwell Jr. has been busy doing his small part to see that it goes for McCain in November.

As we noted a few weeks back, Falwell shut down a parking lot owned by Liberty University that attendees to an Obama rally were intending to use, citing IRS regulations, and then, just a few weeks later, held a McCain campaign rally on campus.

But just in case that wasn’t enough, Falwell has announced that Liberty U is launching a campus wide voter registration drive to get every one of its 10,000+ students registered and will be canceling classes on Election Day and shuttling students to the polls:  

Jerry Falwell Jr., chancellor of socially conservative Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va., is launching an ambitious drive to get the school's 10,500 students registered to vote, and he's promising to make buses available to shuttle them to the polls on Election Day.

Falwell, son of the late Rev. Jerry Falwell, said he plans to distribute forms at dormitories and in classrooms tomorrow to make sure students register before Virginia's Oct. 6 deadline.

Falwell, whose father founded the school in 1971 and went on to become a leader in efforts to get evangelicals more involved in politics, said he wants in-state and out-of-state students to register in Virginia. The turnout at Liberty could make a crucial difference in this year's election, he said.

"Wouldn't it be something if Liberty's votes were enough to change which presidential candidate won Virginia and maybe even the presidency itself," Falwell said in a statement announcing the initiative.

With Virginia emerging as a crucial state in the presidential race, frantic campaigns are underway at colleges across the state to get first-time voters to register and to persuade those registered in another state to register in Virginia.

…

But Falwell's efforts to register Liberty students, many of whom might be inclined to support GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), may be an unprecedented step by such a high-ranking college official, political observers say.

On Election Day, Liberty also plans to cancel classes. According to the statement, Falwell is planning "an all-day concert" on campus that will morph into an "election party" when the returns come in.

Falwell is not exaggerating when he says his efforts could shape the outcome of the presidential race in Virginia. Two recent statewide elections -- the U.S. Senate race in 2006 and the attorney general's race in 2005 -- were decided by fewer than 10,000 votes.

Last week, we were noting with amazement how Sarah Palin went from complete unknown to de facto leader of the right-wing movement in a matter of weeks:

Eagle Forum President Phyllis Schlafly, conservative cause prompter Richard Viguerie and Free Congress Foundation President Paul M. Weyrich - all considered movement founders - each gave The Times the same two-word answer to the question about the emerging leader of the right: "Sarah Palin."

"None of the above names - Romney, Gingrich, Huckabee, DeLay - will be the conservative movement's leader in the coming years," Mr. Viguerie said. "Governor Palin's VP nomination is huge. It changes conservative, Republican and American politics for the next 20 years."

Of course, this raises an interesting prospect for what happens to Mike Huckabee in 2012 if John McCain loses this year:  

The former Arkansas governor emerged as one of Palin’s most vocal defenders when he spoke shortly before she took the stage at the Republican National Convention earlier this month.

But depending on how this election shapes up, they could end up political rivals for a future presidential bid with narratives that overlap and appeal to the same constituency.

“I think in a lot of ways, they’re pretty similar figures,” said Jay Barth, a political scientist at Hendrix College in Conway. “Their kind of personal style has some similarities to it. I think she really does cut into his turf significantly.”

Palin’s pick as John McCain’s running mate energized evangelicals, especially those who had been worried that he would choose a running mate who would support abortion rights. She’s also sided with the majority evangelical view in opposing gay marriage and expressing a desire to see creationism discussed alongside evolution in schools.

Those positions cut into Huckabee’s base of support among evangelicals, who were attracted to the Southern Baptist minister for his conservative stance on social issues. And, with a quick wit, Huckabee was able to make up for the lack of name recognition with an ability to grab the limelight.

But Palin—who’s selling herself as a “hockey mom” who hunts moose—is now dominating that limelight. If McCain loses in November, she could become the next in line for the GOP.

Back when he was running for the nomination, Huckabee saw Mitt Romney as the biggest threat to his efforts to secure his position as the Right’s favorite candidate and was absolutely merciless in attacking him, and while he might be willing to take a back seat to Palin at the moment in order to help John McCain’s campaign, he probably won’t be so deferential down the line if he finds himself in a face-to-face showdown with Palin for the Right’s support.

Yesterday we wrote that Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council was preparing to announce a new PAC that, we presumed, would endorse John McCain and Sarah Palin. As it turns out, that FRC is apparently still not quite sure enough about McCain to do so:

Family Research Council President Tony Perkins announced the group's new political action committee that will endorse candidates and raise money.

The PAC will not endorse a presidential candidate, however.

"There are still lingering concerns about some of John McCain’s positions," Perkins said at a press conference. Conservative Christians have voiced concerns in the past over McCain's over embryonic stem cell research and the federal marriage amendment.

Although FRC extended invitations to John McCain, Barack Obama, and Sarah Palin, none of them will appear. Perkins said he believes Palin could have an impact on McCain's policy decisions.

"I’ve had a number of conversations with John McCain, we’re not golfing buddies by any means … she’s not just window dressing, she’s going to be an active partner,"

Perkins said. "While it may not have been a vigorous conversation, John McCain and his campaign were listening." Perkins said the PAC plans to raise about $250,000 and put the money into one of the tighter races.

"We’re not looking to make a huge impact monetarily," he said. "We’re there saying, this is the candidate who lines up with those who are concerned about families."

The PAC endorsed about 80 candidates with just two Democrats on the list: Rep. Heath Shuler and Rep. Mike McIntyre.

A few weeks ago, Barack Obama held a rally in Lynchburg, VA not far from Liberty University.  Just down the road from the rally site was a shopping plaza where those attending the rally were expecting to park – unfortunately for them, the lot was owned by Liberty University and they refused to let rally attendees use it, citing IRS regulations. 

Which makes this article all the more interesting:

John McCain’s brother Joe McCain will lead a public rally at Liberty University on Friday, Chancellor Jerry Falwell Jr. announced to students during the school’s convocation Wednesday.

Falwell also announced an unprecedented push at the school to distribute thousands of voter registration forms to students, both in the dorms and in the classrooms.

He said students have the potential to influence a tight presidential race in which Virginia is considered a key state.

“We only encourage you to educate yourself on the issues, and vote your conscience,” Falwell told students.

Joe McCain is scheduled to speak briefly at Friday’s convocation service at 10 a.m. at the Vines Center, said Liberty spokesman Johnnie Moore.

McCain then will head to Roanoke for a campaign stop, and return to Lynchburg for a 2 p.m. rally from the campaign’s “Victory Bus” in front of the Vines Center.

Of course, Falwell insists that this is totally different: 

Parking isn’t the same kind of issue with Friday’s campaign event, Falwell said, because the school has met IRS regulations by extending an offer to the Obama campaign to come to LU. 

So Liberty couldn’t let people attending an Obama rally use its lot because of tax concerns, but can let the McCain campaign hold a rally right on campus?  Falwell admitted back during the Obama flap that, had it been McCain seeking to use its parking lot,   “It's true we'd be a little more tempted to help.”   No kidding. 

(Via AU’s Wall of Separation)

Back when the Republican primary was still hot-and-heavy, there was some speculation that the Religious Right was not-so-subtly lining up behind Mitt Romney because when a group of heavyweights teamed up with Focus on the Family Action to analyze the South Carolina primary, every candidate was criticized except Mitt Romney.  

Focus responded to the speculation by telling Marc Ambinder that they were not “endorsing any candidates, either ‘stealthily’ or otherwise” and then Tony Perkins weighed in as well, telling Michael Scherer that not only was he not endorsing anyone, but that he had no plans to do so in the future:

Last Saturday night, after the polls closed in South Carolina, I joined our friends at Focus on the Family Action in a live web cast discussion of the election returns. My comments about each of the presidential candidates were excerpted for home page clips on the Focus Action web site. The interpretation being given to those comments by some is just wrong. I have not endorsed any candidate for the White House and have no plans to do so. During the course of almost a year of speaking about this tense and competitive race, I have talked to thousands of reporters and offered reams of commentary. Despite the urgings of many close friends and allies in the social issue trenches, people who have been at my side for battle after battle, I have not chosen -- and have not plans -- to give an explicit or implied endorsement to any individual.

Well, it looks like that is about to change:

On Friday at 1 PM at the Values Voter Summit, Family Research Council Action President Tony Perkins will announce the formation of a Political Action Committee and release candidate endorsements.

What: News Conference to announce formation of FRC Action Political Action Committee and Candidate Endorsements

Who: Tony Perkins, President of FRC Action
David Nammo, Executive Director of FRC Action

When: Friday, September 12, 2008
1 PM ET

Presumably, John McCain and Sarah Palin will be among those getting the new FRC PAC’s endorsement.

It’s amazing how, as the election gets closer, the Right seems to continually find ways to renege on their earlier pledges and support John McCain.

Catholic League President Bill Donohue seizes the opportunity to respond to a survey that indicates 57% of Americans believe religious leaders should not support political candidates from the pulpit: “Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama should set an example by pledging never to attend a church service that is a front for a political rally. Too often, clergy have abused their office by making veiled endorsements—and in some cases explicit endorsements—of candidates for public office at a church service. Just as bad has been the practice of the candidates themselves making a pitch to the congregation from the pulpit.” Never one to inappropriately mix religion and politics, Donohue tends to simply accuse political opponents of anti-Catholic bias.

It is no secret that, heading into the 2008 election, the Republican Party’s right-wing base is anything but energized about having to vote for John McCain.  Facing dim prospects, the McCain campaign is doing what it can to court the Right, as is the RNC, while Religious Right power-brokers are working overtime to get pastors involved all over the country. 

For instance, a few weeks ago, Kenyn Cureton, the Family Research Council’s Vice President for Church Ministries, appeared on Janet Folger’s “Faith2Action” radio program where he revealed their plans to encourage pastors to speak out leading up to the election and, in his words, “cross the line”:

 “The pastors need to speak clearly about it. I’ll tell you we are working with the Alliance Defense Fund on a series of sermons this fall for pastors to preach, so that they educate their people on the issues.

“We’re gonna be talking about the value of life, the value of family and the value of freedom, basically talking about abortion and stem-cell research,” he continued, “and then also about the gay agenda and then finally about our Christian heritage and how it’s being stripped from every corner of society. And then finally we’re gonna be doing a candidate comparison message that is going to ask pastors to cross the line.”

At the time, it wasn’t know exactly what FRC and the Alliance Defense Fund were planning, but today the ADF revealed that it intends to find preachers who are willing to defy the current tax laws and openly challenge the IRS:

A conservative legal-advocacy group is enlisting ministers to use their pulpits to preach about election candidates this September, defying a tax law that bars churches from engaging in politics.

Alliance Defense Fund, a Scottsdale, Ariz., nonprofit, is hoping at least one sermon will prompt the Internal Revenue Service to investigate, sparking a court battle that could get the tax provision declared unconstitutional. Alliance lawyers represent churches in disputes with the IRS over alleged partisan activity.

The action marks the latest attempt by a conservative organization to help clergy harness their congregations to sway elections. The protest is scheduled for Sunday, Sept. 28, a little more than a month before the general election, in a year when religious concerns and preachers have been a regular part of the political debate.

As Americans United’s Rob Boston put it, “If a few misguided churches want to become cogs in a political machine, they can simply give up their tax exemptions and play by the same tax and election-law rules as everybody else.”   But the Right refuses to do that and has decided, instead, to challenge the constitutionality of the law in the court.

And given the current make-up of the Supreme Court and the likelihood that the next president will be placing one or more justices on the Court, it is quite possible that the outcome of this right-wing legal challenge, should it make it to the high court, will rest heavily on the outcome of the very election they are seeking to influence.

Having already made nice with Jerry Falwell after having once labeled him an “agent of intolerance,” and fresh on the heels of his offer to meet with James Dobson after Dobson declared that he would not support his presidential bid “under any circumstances,”  John McCain appears to be doing all that he can to win over the Right.  

For instance, it was recently announced that McCain has secured the endorsement of a Christian talk-show host in Iowa:

Maxine Sieleman praised Mr. McCain for his "consistent record supporting pro-life, pro-family legislation" and his commitment to appointing "strict constructionist judges."

Ms. Sieleman is the founder of the Iowa chapter of Concerned Women for America, which advocates bringing "biblical principles" to public policy. She has also hosted a show on a Christian radio station in Des Moines since 1982.

In an apparent attempt to further establish his right-wing credentials, McCain has done a blatant about-face and announced that he will oppose a lobbying reform bill he once supported:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has told conservative activists that he will vote to strip a key provision on grassroots lobbying from the reform package he previously supported.

…

While grassroots groups on both sides of the political spectrum oppose the proposal, social conservative leaders such as Dr. James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, who broadcasts a radio program to hundreds of thousands of evangelical Christians, have been its most vehement critics.

McCain sponsored legislation last Congress that included an even broader requirement for grassroots lobbying coalitions to reveal their financial donors. But now he will vote to defeat a similar measure.

It looks as if Rep. Tom Tancredo is hoping to capitalize on his anti-immigrant credentials in an effort to make a run for the White House:

Rep. Tom Tancredo yesterday formed a committee to explore a run for the Republican nomination for president, hoping to force the issue of immigration into the primary debates and push the candidates to embrace stricter enforcement.    

"As I look at the current presidential candidates -- Republican and Democratic -- I simply do not see one who reflects the grass-roots, majority belief of Americans that our borders must be secured, that employers who hire illegals must be prosecuted, and that no one who has broken our immigration laws should ever be put on a 'pathway to citizenship,' " Mr. Tancredo wrote in his first fundraising letter.

It is hard to believe that Tancredo has much of a chance of winning the GOP nomination – and the fact that his campaign is winning accolades from Bay Buchanan does not bode well:

Bay Buchanan, a friend and confidante of Mr. Tancredo's who runs his political action committee, Team America, said that immigration is the issue that will help Mr. Tancredo stand out from the pack of candidates. She also said his record, consistently conservative up and down the line, will go over well with Iowa's pro-life, conservative caucusgoers.    

"He is an across-the-board social conservative -- one that the Christian right can feel completely comfortable with, that he has been with them on those issues for his whole life," she said.    

…

But Mr. Tancredo stands out from that pack because he brings to the race a dedicated army of talk-radio show hosts and activists who oppose illegal immigration.    

"His strength is that he already has a national following. He has enormous grass-roots support. He is well-known across this country by the Republican base," said Mrs. Buchanan, who was chairman in all three of her brother Pat Buchanan's presidential campaigns.

Having thrice chaired her brother’s various losing efforts, Buchanan clearly has an affinity backing futile vanity campaigns, so it comes as no surprise that she’s supporting Tancredo.

In two op-eds and an event with Sens. Cornyn and DeMint.

Aims to teach “intelligent design.”

Instead, AIM’s Kincaid suggests “sabotage” by supposed gay staffers.

Writing in The National Review, Byron York has penned an article entitled “The Loser Who Won’t Concede” in which he dismisses the massive undervote of more than 18,000 ballots in Florida’s 13th Congressional District during the November election [CNN ran a segment about it yesterday.] 

The People For the American Way Foundation has been very active in seeking a remedy for this disenfranchisement of thousands of voters, and thus knows a bit more about it than York seems to. For instance, York claims:

[T]here was no evidence anything had gone wrong with the machines. As the wrangling went on, a group of three political scientists — James Honaker and Jeffrey Lewis of UCLA and Michael Herron of Dartmouth — began to look into the matter. They found no evidence of machine malfunction, either, and instead argued that the problem was most likely a confusing ballot design in Sarasota County’s machines.

This is actually not the case. In the report that Herron et al. published, they explicitly state that "we cannot directly address engineering issues here" and "we cannot definitively rule out the possibility that there was some voting machine malfunction in the sense that Sarasota County's touchscreen machines failed to record and tabulate actual screen touches ... because this paper presents a statistical analysis of vote patterns and not a physical examination of voting machines, we cannot completely rule out voting machine malfunction as a source of the Sarasota undervote." 

Herron et al. stated that they believed that the ballot format design was to blame, but York's writing is irresponsible in suggesting that they "found no evidence" of machine malfunction.  For one thing, Herron is not a computer scientist and didn’t examine the machines for error since he was engaged in a purely statistical analysis of the undervotes.  Indeed, when he testified recently as an expert for the voting machine vendor (Election Systems and Software) at an evidentiary hearing in the Florida lawsuits brought by voters and one of the candidates to contest the election, he specifically acknowledged that he had no expertise in the computer software programming for the voting machines used in Sarasota County.

Despite York’s assertion that there was “no evidence of machine malfunction,” PFAWF found many potentially disenfranchised voters who claim otherwise.  

With the 110th Congress now in session and the “winner” of the 13th Congressional District race being provisionally sworn-in, it is imperative that a full investigation be conducted in order to ensure that voters of Florida’s 13th Congressional District are represented by the candidate they intended to elect.  

In a post on his ghostwritten (but apparently not fact checked) blog, former somebody Tom Delay took aim at People For the American Way Foundation and the ACLU, who along with Voter Action and the Electronic Frontier Foundation are representing Sarasota County voters suing for a revote in Florida's 13th congressional district race in which more than 18,000 voters were disenfranchised in a contest decided by fewer than 400 votes.

[Democratic Congressional Candidate Christine] Jennings, for her part, is filing an official election challenge with the House Administration Committee, and she and leftwing advocacy groups such as People for the American Way and the ACLU have already launched a lawsuit in Florida, asking Leon County (Tallahassee) Circuit Judge William Gary to negate the November 7th results and order a new election. The suit was filed in Tallahasse, hundreds of miles from the 13th district, in hopes of getting a more liberal judge and jury pool instead of Sarasota County where the election actually occurred and the voting machines in question are located.

Of course, had Delay paid attention to the law, he would have known state law requires that an election contest like this, where the election encompassed more than one county, must be filed in state court in Leon County (Tallahassee). Oh, and it’s not a jury trial either.

It’s nice to nice to see Tom Delay is maintaining the high standards of honesty and integrity that gave him the opportunity to be a blogger rather than a member of Congress.